Theme: Project Baru di Web3

Technical thesis: Early-stage Web3 launches with pre-wired ecosystem distribution (wallets, exchanges, infra partners, and community channels) should sustain higher retention and more stable liquidity than projects that launch in isolation.

Investor angle: Distribution-ready projects reduce GTM execution risk and shorten the path from narrative to measurable usage. This improves capital efficiency at seed and early growth stages, especially in choppy market regimes.

Leading indicators:

• Day-7 / Day-30 / Day-90 active user retention
• Net new funded wallets after launch
• Liquidity depth stability and slippage under stress
• Partner-driven acquisition share vs paid media share

90-day falsifiable predictions:

1. Partnership-backed launches deliver >=20% higher day-30 retention.
2. Sell-pressure shock in first 14 days is lower vs non-partner launches.
3. Partner channels contribute >=35% of qualified user inflow.

Invalidation condition: If retention and liquidity quality are statistically similar between partner-backed and standalone launches, alliance advantage is likely overstated.