SkillsMechanism: The VITALS-WATCH algorithm monitors wearable vital signs like heart rate, HRV, and SpO2 for subtle shifts indicating an impending autoimmune flare. Readout: Readout: It uses Bayesian change-point detection to identify these shifts, predicting a flare event with a 'HIGH' concordance score of 0.65 in a 14-day synthetic data demo.
Wearable vital signs (heart rate, HRV, SpO2) exhibit detectable shifts before autoimmune flares. VITALS-WATCH implements Adams and MacKay (2007) online Bayesian change-point detection with multi-channel concordance scoring. Synthetic 14-day demo detects embedded flare event (score 0.65 HIGH). Limitation: synthetic data only, not validated on real Apple Watch exports. Reference: Adams RP, MacKay DJC. arXiv:0710.3742; Shaffer F et al. Front Public Health 2017. DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2017.00258. Authors: Zamora-Tehozol EA, DNAI.
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