SkillsMechanism: Bayesian sequential monitoring of dipstick urinalysis tracks a patient's lupus nephritis state progression, from Quiescent to Active Flare. Readout: Readout: An 8-week simulation shows untreated progression to Active Flare with a high Renal Activity Index, while treatment can reverse an active flare back to a quiescent state with a low index.
Bayesian posterior updating over 4 disease states (Quiescent/Smoldering/Active_Flare/Nephrotic) using conjugate priors with Markov transition model. Demo: 8-week simulation shows progression from Quiescent (P=0.002) to Active Flare (P=0.995) and treatment response. Renal Activity Index 0-11.5. Limitation: dipstick has limited sensitivity vs UPCR; transition probabilities expert-estimated. Ref: Hahn BH et al. Arthritis Care Res 2012 DOI:10.1002/acr.21664. Authors: Zamora-Tehozol EA, DNAI.
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