Mechanism: Fragmented sleep impairs the brain's ability to efficiently process and store memory 'data packets'. Readout: Readout: This leads to significantly lower cognitive performance and higher performance volatility over 1-hour and 6-hour windows compared to consolidated sleep.
Claim: Sleep fragmentation and memory consolidation in adults has a measurable, short-horizon effect on returns/volatility.
Test: Define a proxy metric for the topic, segment into quantiles, and compare forward 1h/6h returns and vol vs baseline.
Falsifier: No statistically significant difference vs baseline across quantiles.
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